Study suggests: 4 hostile alien civilizations may invade Earth
The Milky Way is home to millions of potentially habitable planets, but it could harbor four hostile alien civilizations that would invade Earth if they could, according to new research published in the arXiv database.
This article, written by Alberto Caballero, PhD student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain who has not yet undergone the "peer review" process required to be ready for publication in a scientific journal, asks a strange question: What are the odds that humans will one day be able to contact an alien civilization? Hostile capable of invading our planet?
Caballero relied on the study of countries on the planet that invaded some of them between 1915 and 2022. Next, he evaluated each country's likelihood of launching an invasion based on that country's percentage of global military spending.
With the addition of many other factors, the author concluded that the current odds of humans invading other inhabited planets do not exceed 0.0014%, within the next 259 years.
As for the possibility of our invasion from other planets, Caballero based on a 2012 paper published in Mathematical SETI (opens in new tab), in which researchers predicted that as many as 15,785 alien civilizations could theoretically share the galaxy with humans.
Caballero concluded that fewer than one civilization, 0.22 to be exact, would be hostile toward humans. However, the number of malicious neighbors rises to 4.42 when calculating civilizations that, like modern humans, are not yet capable of interstellar travel today and may evolve in the future.
It is noteworthy that this possibility remains much less than that the Earth will be destroyed by an asteroid colliding with it, according to the writer.
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